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NEW ORLEANS BOWL
Arkansas State likes to run the ball, and they have a great running back in Antonio Warren who leads the team with over 1000 yards this season. Southern Miss is quite the opposite, struggling to run the ball while passing fairly well. Arkansas State has been blown out by bad teams like Army, but they can hang with good teams as well if they can control the pace and gain a big time of possession advantage. Southern Mississippi is not bad against the run and has a strong linebacker corps which will have to step up to stop Warren. If USM can keep Arkansas State off the field, this game could turn into a blowout. Unfortunately for Arkansas State, stopping Southern Mississippi will be a tough task. The defensive backfield has been suspect against good passing attacks this season, and that will not be acceptable in this game. The key will be getting pressure with blitzes at key times against the Golden Eagles to disrupt the passing game. I expect Southern Miss to break out a lot of screen passes and draws to keep Arkansas State guessing. Arkansas State can win this battle, but they need to step up in the backfield and call a great game defensively to keep their offense in the game.
GMAC BOWL
When Toledo has the ball, their attack is very balanced between rush and pass. Bruce Gradkowski can light up defenses with his sharp passing, and Toledo also will force the run to open up the passing game. UTEP looked bad against the mediocre offenses of SMU and UAB at the end of the season, but the defense was not helped by the turnovers the offense committed. Toledo has a lot of playmakers and good offensive schemes, and I expect UTEP will have trouble stopping the Rocket offensive attack. UTEP has also had a prolific offense this season, but they are much more pass oriented behind their leader Jordan Palmer (Carson's younger brother). Toledo will be bringing pressure as they did in the MAC all season, so UTEP must be careful with the ball or else they will lose their third in a row, mostly due to turnovers. If UTEP holds onto the ball and establishes a little bit of a running threat, then the passing game will put up huge numbers against the Toledo secondary. As in many of the Miners' games this season, the race to 40 points will probably determine this game.
LAS VEGAS BOWL
BYU is one of the best ten passing teams in America this season, pushing their overall offense up to 13th nationally. John Beck threw for over 3000 yards this season, but the Cougars are far from one-dimensional. Curtis Brown rushed for almost 1100 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2005. California had some serious trouble stopping good offensive attacks in the Pac-10 this season, and they will have their hands full keeping BYU off the ball. Cal's best defense might be their offense in this game. While BYU put up amazing numbers this season, the Bears have been no slouches with two rushers around 1000 yards and a decent passing attack. One concern is losing starting QB Ayoob before the Stanford game, but their backup Steve Levy ran a competent game against Stanford. BYU will have to make Levy uncomfortable, but that will be hard to do as they must stack their front 7 or 8 against the good Cal running attack. Expect California to play it conservative and try to grind out a victory against the Cougars with minimal opportunities to make mistakes. The more rest they give the Golden Bear defense, the more likely California will be celebrating a bowl victory.
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