Here’s a look at who each of the contenders has left on the schedule:
Michigan: at Mich St., Minn, at Wisc, Ohio St., W. Mich
Illinois: at Purdue, Penn St., at Ohio St., NWtrn
Purdue: Illinois, at Ohio St., Mich St., at Indiana, ND
Michigan State: Michigan, Indiana, at Purdue, Penn St., Missouri
Ohio State: at Minnesota, Purdue, Illinois, at Michigan
Here is what would have to happen for each team to capture the Conference Title:
Michigan: The Wolverines have already beaten Illinois and Purdue, their two
closest competitors right now. If they can beat MSU this weekend, they will probably win
the Big Ten. As long as they win out, they have nothing to worry about. And even if they
don’t, as I said, they hold the tiebreaker over Purdue and Illinois.
Illinois: The Illini have to have a Michigan loss to have a shot at the Big Ten title.
Even in a two-way tie with Michigan, they would lose the tiebreaker. Their only hope to
win the tie would be to have a three-way tie (or more). Michigan’s best chance for a loss
comes against either MSU this weekend or at Wisconsin. Ohio State could provide a
challenge. The Illini play Purdue this weekend, and then OSU later. They do not play
Michigan State. Therefore, if there was a three-way tie, it would have to be with 3 2-loss
teams since Pur and Ill play each other and they already have 1 loss each.
Purdue: Purdue, like Illinois, has lost only to Michigan. They have three big
games left: Illinois, at Ohio State, and Michigan State. They will probably need to win out
to have any shot at the Big Ten title. Purdue and Illinois are also very similar in that they
will need a 3-way tie with teams with 2 losses to win the tiebreaker for the title.
Michigan State and Ohio State:To put in plainly, these teams need a lot of
extremely good things to happen to win the Big Ten. MSU still has to play Michigan and
Purdue. They do not play Illinois or Ohio State. OSU still must play Purdue, Illinois, and
Michigan. Obviously, both of these teams will need to win out and hope that Michigan,
Illinois, and Purdue end up with two losses each. For either of these two teams to come
out on top, there would probably have to be a 3(or more)-way tie.
Summing it up:
Michigan controls their own destiny, and honestly, should win they Big Ten. They have as
easy of a schedule as any of their closest competitors. The Wolverines also could climb in
the BCS Standings if the rights things happen outside the Big Ten and contend for a Rose
Bowl bid.
The Mad Dash for the Bowl Games
The Teams with a shot (with their remaining games):
--Michigan: (4-0, 6-1) at Mich St., Minn, at Wisc, Ohio St.
--Illinois: (3-1, 6-1) at Purdue, Penn St., at Ohio St., NWtrn
--Purdue: (3-1, 5-1) Illinois, at Ohio St., Mich St., at Ind, ND
--Michigan State: (2-2, 4-2) Michigan, Indiana, at Purdue, Penn St., MO
--Ohio State: (2-2, 4-3) at Minn, Purdue, Illinois, at Michigan
--Iowa: (2-3, 4-3) at Wisc, at NWtrn, Minn, at IA State
--Northwestern: (2-3, 4-3) at Indiana, Iowa, BowlGreen, at Illinois
--Wisconsin (2-3, 4-5) Iowa, Michigan, at Minn
Here’s what needs to happen for each of these teams:
Michigan: They’re in. The more they win, the better bowl they get. If they win
the Big Ten, they’re in the BCS. If the right things happen around the country, they could
play for the National Championship.
Illinois: They’re in a bowl also. And, like Michigan, they are playing for a better
bowl. If they win out, they have a slight chance at being an at-large BCS team. Their
schedule is probably too tough for that though. Look for the Illini to play well for the rest
of the season and play in a good bowl.
Purdue: The Boilers all but have a bowl game locked up. With the strength of
schedule they have left though, they should definitely expect nothing more than a 9-2
record. Even an 8-3 season would be good for the first post-Brees season and put Purdue
in a good bowl game.
Michigan State: The Spartans have 3 very winnable games left on the schedule,
plus two tough ones. They should easily get 6 wins, and a 7-4 record. More than that
would be great for MSU.
Ohio State: The Buckeyes must go 2-2 in their final 4 games to become bowl
eligible, and that will not be easy. Their game this weekend at Minnesota is a must-win.
Then they must come back and beat either Purdue or Illinois for thier 6th win, before
going on the road to Michigan. More than 6-5 would be surprising at this point.
Iowa: The Hawkeyes must also go 2-2 in their final four games to be bowl
eligible. Their task will be even more difficult than OSU’s. A home game vs. Minnesota
should give them 1 win. None of the other 3 games will be easy. If they make it to a
bowl, it will be big improvement for Iowa. My guess: Iowa’s going bowling.
Northwestern: This was one of my picks for a surprise team this season. Oh
well. They also must go 2-2 to finish with 6 wins. A game against Bowling Green will
give them 5, and the other 3 games are all winnable. I think they’ll come out with a 7-4
record and a decent bowl.
Wisconsin: They need to win 2 of the last three games to go bowling. Michigan
will probably beat the Badgers so that means they will have to win the other two. Both
are winnable games. Whoever wins this week’s Iowa/Wisc game will likely go bowling
while the other may stay home. Wisconsin better win.
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