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| MOUNTAIN WEST SHOWDOWN HEADLINES WEEK
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February 21, 2011
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Daniel, SCS.com Staff Writer
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Contact Daniel
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GAME OF THE WEEK
BYU at San Diego State
Saturday 1 p.m. CBS
It’s debatable whether or not BYU and San Diego State have actually played this season.
After all, the first meeting in January wasn’t really on television—unless you consider the CBS College Sports Network real TV. I certainly don’t receive that channel, and I’m not sure many fans do. So I saw exactly zero minutes of BYU’s victory at the Marriot Center that night.
We’re all in luck this Saturday, though. The real CBS channel is broadcasting the game from California, and it’s the first nationally televised Mountain West game in conference history.
BEST INDIVIDUAL MATCH-UP: Jimmer Fredette (BYU) vs. D.J. Gay, Chase Tapley and whoever else guards the guy
I’m not very much into praising the Jimmer. I used to talk about him all the time, but then he went mainstream this season. If you know anything about me, I’m hardly one to align with the masses, so I’ve ceased mentioning Jimmer’s name lately. Instead, I’ve acted as a basketball snob, praising the contributions of Jackson Emery and Brandon Davies. However, I’ve got a job to do in breaking down this game, and gosh darn it, I’m gonna do it—how in the world will San Diego State guard Jimmer Fredette? Since I wasn’t one of the four Americans that saw the first match-up, I don’t have the slightest clue as to who tried to guard him. It’ll be a chess match to watch how Steve Fisher defends Fredette. UNLV had success doubling Fredette in the first half of a match-up at the Thomas and Mack Center in January, as he spent the first 15 minutes or so in frustration mode. However, Fredette eventually adjusted and torched UNLV in the second half, finding Emery as well for a career night.
BEST STORYLINE: The Other Guys
Jimmer Fredette’s the nation’s best player, but BYU’s a Final Four contender because of his teammates. Saturday is a chance for Emery, Davies and the rest of the crew to show America that the Cougars are more than just The Jimmer. If you’ve watched BYU at all this season, you’d have noticed how well they share the ball and how cohesive they are as a unit. Fredette’s a huge part of that, of course, but he’s got more help than most believe.
HOW THE WEST WILL BE WON:
Even though most of the nation probably hasn’t seen San Diego State play, casual fans still know how they win: in the frontcourt. That’s what defines Fisher’s team. Kahwi Leonard’s the star, but Malcolm Thomas, Billy White and even the monstrous Brian Carwell off the bench form one of the nation’s most frightening front lines. BYU is, of course, a guard-oriented team, especially from an offensive standpoint. They excel getting in the lane and playing efficient basketball. BYU has more three-point shooting than San Diego State, but the Aztecs can throw to a number of players on the block and score in the paint. BYU has to control tempo, take good shots offensively and keep San Diego State from pounding the rock inside.
BOTTOM LINE: I said when San Diego State lost last month that things would be different at home. Nobody wins at the Marriot Center, and there was no reason to expect the Aztecs to win there either. Same goes for Saturday. In a battle of two even squads, the home crowd makes all the difference.
Prediction: San Diego State 76, BYU 69
MUST-SEE MATCHUPS
Syracuse at Villanova Monday 6 p.m.
Back in January, Villanova shot lights out at the Carrier Dome. The Wildcats missed just two free throws, made 11 three-pointers and knocked off Syracuse in a high-profile top-10 match-up. A month later, both teams have slid down the polls, and they’re both trying to redefine themselves before heading to the Garden for the Big East Tournament.
Prediction: Villanova 72, Syracuse 70
Temple at Duke Wednesday 6 p.m.
That was fast. Thanks to a whirlwind weekend, Duke’s back atop the rankings, and it’ll put that number one spot on the line when Temple visits Cameron Indoor Stadium for a mid-week tilt. Don’t underestimate this Owls team. It’s easy to forget about them, especially after they played poorly in the Old Spice Classic in November. They’ve run off eight straight wins, and more importantly, Fran Dunphy’s getting more consistent production from forward Lavoy Allen, an NBA prospect who’s struggled to find his game.
Prediction: Duke 67, Temple 62
Gonzaga at St. Mary’s Thursday 10 p.m.
There’s a reason Gonzaga has won the West Coast Conference ten straight seasons. It was silly for all of us to dismiss the Zags after losing at home to St. Mary’s last month on Mickey McConnell’s buzzer-beater. At the time, the Bulldogs suffered their third WCC loss and needed a miracle to re-enter the league race. That miracle seems to have occurred: Gonzaga is just a game back from St. Mary’s heading into Thursday’s contest. I’m not sure about you, but I don’t think Mark Few’s program will lose to St. Mary’s a second time with the league on the line, even on the road.
Prediction: Gonzaga 75, St. Mary’s 72
Missouri at Kansas State Saturday 11 a.m.
Jacob Pullen may play in the post-season after all. The guard pledged not to play in the NIT if Kansas State did not qualify for the NCAA tournament, but he may not have a decision to make anymore after his team knocked off Kansas on Big Monday last week. Missouri handled KSU at home in mid-January, but it just won its first road game in six tries on Saturday in Ames. And the Tigers haven’t won in Manhattan since the middle of Quin Snyder’s tenure. Like always, it’ll be a battle at Bramlage on Saturday, and the winner will emerge with a critical resume victory—and probably a little blood, too.
Prediction: Missouri 70, Kansas State 69
Wichita State at Missouri State Saturday 12 p.m.
As long as Wichita State and Missouri State take care of business this week against inferior opponents, Saturday’s contest is effectively a Missouri Valley regular season championship game. Does it get any better than that? Logic would assume that the Bears would hold an enormous advantage at the Q in Springfield, especially because the two teams are quite even and MSU already won at Wichita. However, this season has been anything but logical for Wichita State. The Shockers historically dominate competition at Koch Arena, but they’ve lost four home games. And the only road game they’ve lost was at San Diego State. WSU hasn’t just avoided road losses—it’s excelled in those atmospheres. The big question for Saturday is whether or not Missouri State can keep a ferocious and athletic WSU team off the boards. That’s how VCU won last
Friday night at Koch. The play of the fiery Will Creekmore and POY candidate Kyle Weems is critical against Wichita State’s bigs.
Prediction: Wichita State 56, Missouri State 52
Pittsburgh at Louisville Sunday 1 p.m.
Even with 34 minutes and 26 points from Ashton Gibbs on Saturday after returning from injury, Pitt still could not avoid a loss at the Garden to St. John’s. Apparently, his teammates took his return for granted. No other Panther scored in double figures and the team turned the ball over 16 times as a whole. I still believe in Pitt’s national title hopes, but this team needs to find balanced scoring in the frontcourt and take the pressure off Gibbs somehow. .
Prediction: Pittsburgh 68, Louisville 62
UPSET WATCH
Georgia at Florida Thursday 6 p.m.
The Rematch. That’s what I’m calling this game after that wild, chaotic double-overtime finish in Athens last month. Georgia staged a late comeback in the second half and appeared to have stolen a win in the overtime period before Earving Walker’s bomb in the final seconds sent the game to double-overtime, where the Gators prevailed. With just a few weeks before the post-season, Florida’s in a comfortable position in the top-15 of the polls, but UGA has work to do. I smell an air of desperation from a tough Bulldogs team with the physicality to bother Florida. If Georgia pulls the upset, it’ll need better play from point guard Gerald Robinson. He’s one of the SEC’s more underrated guards with his lightning speed and playmaking ability. He turned the ball over six times in the first meeting against Florida.
Prediction: Georgia 78, Florida 72
UNDER THE RADAR
Mississippi Valley State at Texas Southern Monday 8 p.m.
You better believe I’m promoting the SWAC here. Texas Southern, coached by former Missouri assistant Tony Harvey, may have one of the best squads the league has seen since Jackson State’s run a handful of years ago. Like most SWAC teams, Texas Southern played a murderer’s row in the non-conference, but it lost to Wichita State, Iowa State, Arkansas and Baylor by 12 points or less. That’s a modest accomplishment, I know, but this team is 12-1 in league play and would wrap up a title with a win tonight.
Prediction: Texas Southern 65, Mississippi Valley State 60
Morehead State at Murary State Thursday 8 p.m.
At the end of the day, all is right with the world. Both Morehead State and Murray State, the two consensus favorites to compete for the OVC title, struggled early in league play. However, with the fall of Austin Peay, these two squads are now tied atop the standings and will meet in a monster match-up Thursday night. Morehead State prevailed in the first meeting Dec 4 at home, but it’s difficult to judge the results of that game because of how early the game occurred. Murray State coach Billy Kennedy publicly blasted the league for scheduling such an important game in early December. Two months later, it’s going to be an entirely different ball game. You know all about Kenneth Faried, but Demonte Harper’s his right-hand man in the backcourt. Harper will play professionally somewhere, and he’s a great compliment to Faried.
Prediction: Murray State 58, Morehead State 54
Last week’s prediction record: 5-5
Overall record: 71-44
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