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A LOOK AT WHO THE BUBBLE TEAMS SHOULD ROOT FOR
March 5, 2008

SCS.comAfter a wild weekend of hoops, the bubble list is rapidly changing. As teams continue to make their way on and off the list, one thing stays the same - who the bubble teams should cheer for. If I was a die-hard fan of a team that is on the bubble list, I would want to know what teams need to win and what teams need to lose to better improve my school's chances of making the Big Dance. Luckily, I have compiled a long and rather complicated list to help better explain what teams you should cheer to victory besides your own.

First Things First
Here are the teams that will be in the Tournament regardless of how many games they win or lose in their conference tournaments. If your team is on the Bubble, you should root for these teams to win against any team that they play that is ON the Bubble.

ACC (4)- North Carolina, Duke, Miami (FL), Clemson
Big East (7)- Connecticut, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Louisville, Marquette, Pittsburgh, West Virginia
Big Ten (4)- Indiana, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Purdue
Big Twelve (6)- Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Baylor, Kansas State, Texas A&M
Pac Ten (5)- Stanford, UCLA, Arizona, Washington State, USC
SEC (4)- Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Arkansas
Non-BCS (12)- Memphis, Butler, Drake, BYU, Kent State, St. Mary's, Gonzaga, Xavier, Illinois State, UNLV, South Alabama, Massachusettes

On To The Bubble
Now that you know who is in, let's take a look at who is squarely on the Bubble. Included along with the list of teams is their record, conference record, their RPI number, and their schedule for the rest of the year. If your team is on the bubble, then you should hope for all of these teams to lose any remaining games that they must play, including their conference tournaments.

Note: The teams listed are in order of likelihood of making the NCAA Tournament.

ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS
Record: 18-9, 8-8
RPI: 35
Remaining Games: @Oregon, @Oregon State


UAB BLAZERS
Record: 21-8, 11-3 C-USA
RPI: 71
Remaining Games: Tulsa, @Memphis


FLORIDA GATORS
Record: 21-8, 8-6 SEC
RPI: 50
Remaining Games: Tennessee, @Kentucky


WESTERN KENTUCKY HILLTOPPERS
Record: 22-6, 12-2 SUN BELT
RPI: 45
Remaining Games: Sun Belt Tournament


VILLANOVA WILDCATS
Record: 17-11, 7-9 BIG EAST
RPI: 58
Remaining Games: South Florida, @Providence


NEW MEXICO LOBOS
Record: 22-7, 9-5
RPI: 52
Remaining Games: UNLV, @Colorado State


MARYLAND TERRAPINS
Record: 18-12, 8-7 ACC
RPI: 57
Remaining Games: @Virginia


VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES
Record: 17-11, 8-6 ACC
RPI: 55
Remaining Games: Wake Forest, @ Clemson


KENTUCKY WILDCATS
Record: 16-11, 10-4 SEC
RPI: 59
Remaining Games: @South Carolina, Florida


ST. JOSEPH'S HAWKS
Record: 17-10, 8-6 ATL. TEN
RPI: 64
Remaining Games: Xavier, @Dayton


SYRACUSE ORANGE
Record: 17-12, 7-9 BIG EAST
RPI: 60
Remaining Games: @Seton Hall, Marquette


OHIO STATE BUCKEYES
Record: 17-12, 8-8 BIG TEN
RPI: 48
Remaining Games: Purdue, Michigan State


WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS
Record: 16-11, 6-8 ACC
RPI: 63
Remaining Games: @Virginia Tech, North Carolina State


SOUTHERN ILLINOIS SALUKIS
Record:17-13, 11-7 MVC
RPI:53
Remaining Games:MVC Tournament


CREIGHTON BLUEJAYS
Record:19-9, 10-8 MVC
RPI:51
Remaining Games:MVC Tournament


DAYTON FLYERS
Record: 18-9, 6-8 Atl. Ten
RPI: 70
Remaining Games: @ St. Bonaventure, St. Joseph's


MISSISSIPPI REBELS
Record: 19-9, 5-9 SEC
RPI: 69
Remaining Games: Arkansas, @Georgia


HOUSTON COUGARS
Record: 21-7, 10-4 C-USA
RPI: 67
Remaining Games: Central Florida, @ UTEP


RHODE ISLAND RAMS
Record: 21-9, 7-9 ATL. TEN
RPI: 66
Remaining Games: @La Salle, Charlotte


OREGON DUCKS
Record: 16-12, 7-9 PAC 10
RPI: 42
Remaining Games: Arizona State, Arizona


Adding It All Up

For those of you who haven't figured out the math yet, let me help you.
  - There will be 31 bids handed out to the winners of the 31 conference tournaments.
  - Right now, I have 42 teams who are locks for the NCAA Tournament.
  - Of those 42, we can assume (and hope) that 14 of those will win their conference tournament and the automatic bid that comes with it.
  - This means that there are already 28 at-large bids handed out.
  - If there are 34 at-large bids altogether, then we have only 6 bids to give away.
  - Unlike most "bracketologists" that you will find out there, I believe that some mid-major team who isn't a lock for the Tournament will steal an at-large bid away from the Bubble teams by winning their conference tournament.
  - Unfortunately, we now find that there are only 5 at-large bids to give away.


The Conference Tournaments

Now that you've read about the teams that are in and teams that are on the bubble, it's time to take a look at the Conference Tournaments. Of the 31 conferences in NCAA Basketball, 15 of them will be one-bid conferences, regardless of who wins their conference tournament. The fifteen one-bid leagues are:

America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League (already won by Cornell, winner of the regular season), MAAC, MEAC, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot League, Southland, SWAC, Summit League, and the WAC.

Note: These conferences are one-bid leagues because no team in any of the leagues are on the bubble or a lock for the Tournament, meaning no matter which school wins, only one bid will be given.

To view each league's conference tournament bracket, click here.

Finally, Who To Root For

You already know to cheer for the 42 teams that are locks for the tournament, and root against the 20 schools on the bubble, but what should you do once it's time for conference tournaments? Obviously, you want teams that are clearly in like Memphis, UCLA, and North Carolina to win. But what if they're knocked out in the first round? Also, should you cheer for a team on the bubble like Kentucky to win their first few tournament games, or get eliminated by a team that is a lock?

Possible Two-Bid Conferences

These leagues are those that have ONE team that's clearly in the field of 65, but no more. For these conferences, you should cheer for the team that is already in the tournament. If a team that is on the bubble or not even within view of it were to win one of these conference tournaments, it would steal a bid away from the bubble teams.

Listed is the conference, along with the school that you should root for.

Colonial- Virginia Commonwealth
Conference USA- Memphis
Horizon League- Butler
MAC- Kent State
Southern- Davidson
Sun Belt- South Alabama

Multi-Bid Conferences

These leagues will definitely have multiple bids awarded. These conferences bubble teams shouldn't be as worried about, because there are multiple teams that could win their conference and not steal an at-large bid away.

Listed is the conference along with the schools that you should root for.

ACC- Clemson, Duke, Miami, North Carolina
Atlantic Ten- Massachusettes, Xavier
Big East- Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, West Virginia
Big Ten- Indiana, Michigan State, Purdue, Wisonsin
Big XII- Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
MVC- Drake, Illinois State
Mountain West- BYU, UNLV
SEC- Arkansas, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
West Coast- Gonzaga, St. Mary's

Well, hopefully I've informed you on all you need to know. You now know who is in, who is on the bubble, who needs to win to keep at-large bids, and who needs to lose to help your bubble team. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to write me at any time. Until tournament time, happy cheering.

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