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FINAL WEEKEND WILL SET FIELD FOR PAC-10, SEC
March 1, 2007
Ben, SCS.com Staff Writer
Contact Ben
There is only one weekend left in the college hoops regular season, and now is the perfect time to figure out how some conference tournaments are shaping up. Some teams, such as UCLA and Florida have clinched their conferences and the overall 1 seed for their respective conference tournament. The Pac-10 teams have either one or two more games to play, while the SEC teams all have a single game to play until the tournament. Let’s look at the Pac-10 and SEC conference seeds.
Conference Tournament Schedule
Wednesday, March 7 - First Round
8:00 PM - G1: #8 vs #9
10:30 PM - G2: #7 vs #10
Thursday, March 8 – Quarterfinals
2:00 PM - G3: #5 vs #4
4:30 PM - G4: #1 vs Winner G1
8:00 PM - G5: #6 vs #3
10:30 PM - G6: #2 vs Winner G2
Friday, March 9 – Semifinals
8:00 PM - G7: Winner G3 vs Winner G4
10:30 PM - G8: Winner G5 vs Winner G6
Saturday, March 10 – Championship
5:00 PM - Winner G7 vs Winner G8
Standings As Of Right Now UCLA has proved very dominant this year in Pac-10, losing only twice (by a total of nine points, both on the road). They are 14-2, and will receive the 1 seed no matter what happens the rest of the season. UCLA should be able to win at Washington, however their game at Washington State is a toss-up at this point. Regardless of that game’s outcome, the Bruins will still receive the overall 1 seed in the Pac-10 Tournament and a first-round bye. They will get the winner of the 8 seed vs. the 9 seed. Washington State, USC, Oregon, Arizona, and Stanford are all in the second tier of the Pac-10. Washington State and USC seem to be the favorites of this group to receive the 2 and 3 seeds, however the other three can still get at least the 3. None of these teams can receive a seed lower than 6, therefore none of them will be playing the first day in the Pac-10 Tournament.
1. UCLA (14-2)
2. Washington State (12-4)
3. USC (11-5)
4. Oregon (10-7)
5. Arizona (9-7)
6. Stanford (9-7)
7. Washington (6-10)
8. California (6-10)
9. Oregon State (3-14)
10. Arizona State (1-15)
The Top Overall Seed
Best Possible Seed: 1st
Worst Possible Seed: 1st
Remaining Schedule: @ Washington State, @ Washington
Holds Tie-Breaker Over: All Teams
How It Should All Play Out
The Next Five
Washington State 12-4
Best Possible Seed: 2nd
Worst Possible Seed: 3rd
Remaining Schedule: UCLA, USC
Holds Tie-Breaker Over: USC(TBD)
USC 11-5
Best Possible Seed: 2nd
Worst Possible Seed: 4th
Remaining Schedule: @ Washington, @ Washington State
Holds Tie-Breaker Over: Washington State(TBD), Oregon, Arizona
Oregon 10-7
Best Possible Seed: 4th
Worst Possible Seed: 5th
Remaining Schedule: Oregon State
Holds Tie-Breaker Over: Arizona, Stanford
Arizona 9-7
Best Possible Seed: 4th
Worst Possible Seed: 6th
Remaining Schedule: @ Cal, @ Stanford
Holds Tie-Breaker Over: Stanford (TBD)
Stanford 9-7
Best Possible Seed: 3rd
Worst Possible Seed: 6th
Remaining Schedule: Arizona State, Arizona
Holds Tie-Breaker Over: USC, Arizona (TBD)
How It Should All Play Out
Washington State looks like they will have a toss-up game against UCLA, but should be able to win at home against USC, where they have lost only once all year. This will make the Cougars 13-4 with the UCLA game left. USC has a toss-up game at Washington and probably a loss at Washington State. This puts the Trojans’ record at 11-6 with the toss-up game versus the Huskies remaining. Oregon has only one game left and they should win it against Oregon State easily. The Ducks will finish with a record of 11-7 in Pac-10 play. Arizona should win against Cal, but their final game at Stanford is a toss-up. The Wildcats sit at 10-7 for now. Stanford should win big over Arizona State at home, but the game against Arizona is a toss-up. The Cardinal sit at 10-7 for now also. This is how the race looks now. Washington State is 13-4, USC is 11-6, Oregon is 11-7, and Arizona and Stanford are 10-7 with their game between the two left. Whether or not Washington State wins against UCLA, they will still receive the 2 seed. IF USC wins against Washington, they will earn the 3 seed. IF they lose, then it gets complicated. IF Arizona wins against Stanford and USC loses, then Stanford would get the 6 seed, and there would be a three way tie for the 3 seed between USC, Oregon, and Arizona all sitting at 11-7. USC would get the 3, since they are 4-0 against Oregon and Arizona. Oregon would get the 4 since they hold the tiebreaker over Arizona, while the Wildcats would get the 5. IF Stanford were to win against Arizona combined with a USC loss, then Arizona would get the 6 seed, and there would be a three-way tie for the 3 seed between USC, Oregon, and Stanford all sitting at 11-7. USC would get the 3 since they have a 3-1 record versus these two teams. Oregon would get the 4 since they hold the tie-breaker over Stanford, while the Cardinal would get the 5. Washington and Cal both have identical records right now of 6-10. They each have two games left a piece, and one will get the 7 seed while the other will get the 8. What’s on the line? Not a whole lot. The 7 seed will play one-win Arizona State in the first round and will get Washington State if they win. The 8 seed, meanwhile, will play three-win Oregon State and then play first place UCLA, if they get by the Beavers.
The Middle Two
Washington 6-10
Best Possible Seed: 7th
Worst Possible Seed: 8th
Remaining Schedule: USC, UCLA
Holds Tie-Breaker Over: Cal
California 6-10
Best Possible Seed: 7th
Worst Possible Seed: 8th
Remaining Schedule: Arizona, Arizona State
Holds Tie-Breaker Over: None
How It Should All Play Out
Washington is in luck because if they were to finish tied with Cal then they would get the 7 seed, since they hold the tie-break over the Golden Bears. Cal meanwhile, is in luck because they have the easier schedule. The Huskies have two very tough games at home against USC and UCLA. They are both toss-ups for now. Cal has a toss-up game themselves against Arizona at home, but also have an easy win against Arizona State. So Cal looks like they have half of a game over Washington. IF Cal were to win against Arizona, then Washington would need to win both of their remaining games to get the 7 seed. IF Cal were to lose to Arizona, then Washington would only have to win one against either USC or UCLA to get 7th. Oregon State really has nothing left to play for. Their NCAA Tournament at-large chances aren’t possible, as are their NIT hopes as well. They only have one remaining game, and they will get the 9 seed no matter the outcome.
The 9 Seeded Beavers
Oregon State 3-14
Best Possible Seed: 9th
Worst Possible Seed: 9th
Remaining Schedule: @ Oregon
Holds Tie-Breaker Over: Arizona State
How It Should All Play Out
Oregon State would love nothing more than to end a horrible season with a win over in-state rival Oregon on its home floor. Too bad. The Beavers are 1-7 on the road in Pac-10 play while Oregon is 16-2 there this season. The good news for Oregon State is at least their not last.
The Last-Placed Devils
There’s not much to say about Arizona State. The Sun Devils are 1-15 in Pac-10 play. Their only win came against USC at home. They have two games left, both on the road where they haven’t won all year.
Arizona State 1-15
Best Possible Seed: 10th
Worst Possible Seed: 10th
Remaining Schedule: @ Stanford, @ Cal
Holds Tie-Breaker Over: None
How It Should All Play Out
Arizona State doesn’t stand a chance in either one of these games, but I won’t count them out of them, just to be nice. They can still finish 3-15, but that will still get them last place. They might as well prepare for the first round of the Pac-10 Tournament, where they will get the 7 seed.
Possible Final Standings With My Predicted Order In Bold
My Pac-10 Tournament The Pac-10 Tournament will take place in Los Angeles, California from March 7-10.
Standings As Of Right Now
THE EASTERN DIVISION
The Top Overall Team Though Florida has been slumping as of late, they are still the top team by far in the eastern division, as well as the entire SEC. The Gators have a single game left, and regardless of the outcome, will receive the 1 seed in the East, and a first round bye.
Florida 12-3 Florida has only one game left and it is at home to Kentucky. The Gators have not lost at home all year, and there should be no exception this time. Florida should get the win and improve to 13-3 and get the 1 seed for the SEC Tournament.
The Surprise Two-Seed Vanderbilt is probably the most shocking story in the SEC this year. Picked to finish near last, the Commodores have shocked the SEC world and have clinched the 2 seed in the SEC East and a first round bye.
Vanderbilt 10-5 Vanderbilt has a single game left against Arkansas. They should be able to beat the Hogs at home to finish at 11-5, but even if they are unable to do so, they will still receive the 2 seed because they hold the tie-break over Tennessee and Kentucky.
The Middle Three Tennessee, Kentucky, and Georgia are all three within a game of each other, with the Vols and Wildcats a game up on Georgia. Tennessee can not get lower than the 4 seed, Georgia can not get higher than the 4 seed, and Kentucky can get anywhere from the 3-5 seed. All three have a single game left, with the major one being Tennessee at Georgia.
Tennessee 9-6
Kentucky 9-6
Georgia 8-7
Tennessee has only one game left to play and it is at Georgia. This game is too close to call and is a toss-up. Kentucky has only one game left too, but it is the hardest one of the year. The Cats must go to Gainesville to play Florida at their home court. Kentucky should lose this one, but we’ll keep it a toss-up for now. Georgia has their last game at home to Tennessee. Again, this game is a toss-up, and the Dogs need this one since they are a game behind Tennessee and Kentucky. IF Tennessee beats Georgia and Kentucky loses, then Tennessee would get the 3, Kentucky the 4, and Georgia the 5. IF Tennessee beats Georgia and Kentucky wins, then Tennessee would get the 3, Kentucky the 4, and Georgia the 5. IF Georgia beats Tennessee and Kentucky loses, then Tennessee would get the 3, Georgia the 4, and Kentucky the 5. IF Georgia beats Tennessee and Kentucky wins, then Kentucky would get the 3, Tennessee the 4, and Georgia the 5. Things haven’t been too good for defending NIT champs South Carolina. They are 4-11 in the SEC, and have clinched last place in the East. They will face the 3 seed from the West whether they win their final game or not.
South Carolina 4-11
Though LSU is never an easy place to play, I think South Carolina might be able to pull it off. Regardless, they still must play the 3 seed from the west, and if they win, they will get Vanderbilt in the second round.
THE WESTERN DIVISION
The Unpredictable Five These five teams are all within one game of each other with one game left to be played by each team. Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, and Ole Miss are all 7-8, and as if that wasn’t enough, Auburn plays at Ole Miss, and Alabama plays at Mississippi State. The tiebreaker between Ole Miss and Auburn is irrelevant as they can not end up tied. The same goes for Alabama and Mississippi State.
Alabama 7-8
Ole Miss 7-8
Mississippi State 7-8
Auburn 7-8
Arkansas 6-9
Alabama has a tough road outing against Mississippi State to finish their year, however that game is a toss-up. Ole Miss plays well at home, but their game against Auburn is a toss-up too. Mississippi State nearly beat Alabama on the road last time, so their game against them at home is a toss-up. Auburn has been playing hot recently and their final game at Ole Miss is a toss-up. Arkansas faces the toughest challenge as they must travel to Vanderbilt. They should lose this game and end up 6-10 with the 5 seed. IF Alabama and Auburn win, then Auburn would get the 1, Alabama the 2, Mississippi State the 3, and Ole Miss the 4. IF Alabama and Ole Miss win, then Ole Miss would get the 1, Alabama the 2, Mississippi State the 3, and Auburn the 4. IF Mississippi State and Auburn win, then Mississippi State would get the 1, Auburn the 2, Ole Miss the 3, and Alabama the 4. IF Mississippi State and Ole Miss win then Mississippi State would get the 1, Ole Miss the 2, Auburn the 3, and Alabama the 4.
The Disappointed Six Seed LSU went from the Final Four to last place in the SEC West. They are 4-11 with a single game at home to South Carolina left. They will get the 6 seed in the west no matter the outcome, and will face the 3 seed from the East in the first round.
LSU 4-11 LSU is still a good team at home, so they should be able to beat South Carolina and improve their record to 5-11. They will still play in the opening round against the 3 from the East, and if they win, will face the 2 from the West.
My SEC Tournament The SEC Tournament will take place in Atlanta, Georgia from March 8-11.
1. UCLA
2. Washington State
3. USC
4. Oregon
5. Arizona/Stanford
6. Arizona/Stanford
7. Cal/Washington
8. Cal/Washington
9. Oregon State
10. Arizona State
Wednesday, March 7 - First Round
8:00 PM - G1: Washington vs Oregon State
10:30 PM - G2: Cal vs Arizona State
Thursday, March 8 – Quarterfinals
2:00 PM - G3: Stanford vs Oregon
4:30 PM - G4: UCLA vs Washington/ Oregon State
8:00 PM - G5: Arizona vs USC
10:30 PM - G6: Washington State vs Cal/ Arizona State
Friday, March 9 – Semifinals
8:00 PM - G7: Winner G3 vs Winner G4
10:30 PM - G8: Winner G5 vs Winner G6
Saturday, March 10 – Championship
5:00 PM - Winner G7 vs Winner G8
Conference Tournament Schedule
Thursday, March 8 - First Round
12:00 PM - G1: #W5 vs #E4
2:15 PM - G2: #E6 vs #W3
6:30 PM - G3: #E5 vs #W4
8:45 PM - G4: #W6 vs #E3
Friday, March 9 – Quarterfinals
12:00 PM - G5: Winner G1 vs #W1
2:15 PM - G6: Winner G2 vs #E2
6:30 PM - G7: Winner G3 vs #E1
8:45 PM - G8: Winner G4 vs #W2
Saturday, March 10 – Semifinals
12:00 PM - G9: Winner G5 vs Winner G6
2:15 PM - G10: Winner G7 vs Winner G8
Sunday, March 11 – Championship
12:00 PM - G11: Winner G9 vs Winner G10
East
1. Florida (12-3)
2. Vanderbilt (10-5)
3. Tennessee (9-6)
4. Kentucky (9-6)
5. Georgia (8-7)
6. South Carolina (4-11)
West
1. Alabama (7-8)
2. Ole Miss (7-8)
3. Mississippi State (7-8)
4. Auburn (7-8)
5. Arkansas (6-9)
6. LSU (4-11)
Best Possible Seed: 1st
Worst Possible Seed: 1st
Remaining Schedule: Kentucky
Holds Tie-Breaker Over: All Teams
How It Should All Play Out
Best Possible Seed: 2nd
Worst Possible Seed: 2nd
Remaining Schedule: Arkansas
Holds Tie-Breaker Over: All but Florida
How It Should All Play Out
Best Possible Seed: 3rd
Worst Possible Seed: 4th
Remaining Schedule: @ Georgia
Holds Tie-Breaker Over: Kentucky, Georgia
Best Possible Seed: 3rd
Worst Possible Seed: 5th
Remaining Schedule: @ Florida
Holds Tie-Breaker Over: None
Best Possible Seed: 4th
Worst Possible Seed: 5th
Remaining Schedule: Tennessee
Holds Tie-Breaker Over: Kentucky
How It Should All Play Out
The Last Team In The East
Best Possible Seed: 6th
Worst Possible Seed: 6th
Remaining Schedule: @ LSU
Holds Tie-Breaker Over: None
How It Should All Play Out
Possible Final East Standings With My Predicted Order In Bold
1. Florida
2. Vanderbilt
3. Tennessee/ Kentucky
4. Georgia/Tennessee/Kentucky
5. Kentucky/Georiga
6. South Carolina
Best Possible Seed: 1st
Worst Possible Seed: 5th
Remaining Schedule: @ Mississippi State
Holds Tie-Breaker Over: None
Best Possible Seed: 1st
Worst Possible Seed: 5th
Remaining Schedule: Alabama, Auburn
Holds Tie-Breaker Over: Alabama
Best Possible Seed: 1st
Worst Possible Seed: 3rd
Remaining Schedule: Alabama
Holds Tie-Breaker Over: Ole Miss, Auburn, Arkansas
Best Possible Seed: 1st
Worst Possible Seed: 5th
Remaining Schedule: @ Ole Miss
Holds Tie-Breaker Over: Alabama
Best Possible Seed: 3rd
Worst Possible Seed: 5th
Remaining Schedule: @ Vanderbilt
Holds Tie-Breaker Over: Alabama, Ole Miss, Auburn
How It Should All Play Out
Best Possible Seed: 6th
Worst Possible Seed: 6th
Remaining Schedule: South Carolina
Holds Tie-Breaker Over: None
How It Should All Play Out
Possible Final East Standings With My Predicted Order In Bold
1. Mississippi State/Auburn/Ole Miss
2. Ole Miss/Alabama/Auburn
3. Auburn/Mississippi State/ Ole Miss
4. Alabama/Auburn/Ole Miss
5. Arkansas
6. LSU
Thursday, March 8 - First Round
12:00 PM - G1: Arkansas vs Georgia
2:15 PM - G2: South Carolina vs Auburn
6:30 PM - G3: Kentucky vs Alabama
8:45 PM - G4: LSU vs Tennessee
Friday, March 9 – Quarterfinals
12:00 PM - G5: Arkansas/Georgia vs Mississippi State
2:15 PM - G6: South Carolina/Auburn vs Vanderbilt
6:30 PM - G7: Kentucky/Alabama vs Florida
8:45 PM - G8: LSU/Tennessee vs Ole Miss
Saturday, March 10 – Semifinals
12:00 PM - G9: Winner G5 vs Winner G6
2:15 PM - G10: Winner G7 vs Winner G8
Sunday, March 11 – Championship
12:00 PM - G11: Winner G9 vs Winner G10
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