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College Basketball
NCAA Tournament Preview
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WEST REGION PREVIEW
March 18 - 21
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Tournament Bracket
Updated with Results
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Even though the PAC 10 had a down year, the committee evaluates teams, not conferences, and this Cardinal squad has risen to every challenge this year, bouncing back after their only loss of the year in the regular season finale at Washington to beat the Huskies in the finals of the PAC 10 Tournament. The Cardinal has won on neutral courts, beating Kansas in Anaheim in front of a partisan KU crowd and Gonzaga in Oakland in a half-full arena, and survived hostile environments winning on the road at Arizona, Oregon, and USC. Defense, depth and balance are this team's strength but any one of the Cardinal can take a game over on the offensive end at any time. Junior PAC 10 Player of the Year Josh Childress discovered that he could take a game over by slashing to the basket using his 6-8 frame busting out with a career high 36 at USC. Head coach Mike Montgomery calls point guard Chris Hernandez his most valuable player. Senior guard Matt Lottich is as good a shooter as any guard in the country and an athlete who was offered scholarships to play D-I football, baseball or basketball. Power forward Justin Davis made his first appearance since February after straining ligaments in his knees in the PAC 10 Tournament and described his knee strength at being 75%. That number will only go up as March creeps toward April, and the Cardinal creep toward San Antonio.
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North Carolina State might be the least talked about #3 in the tourney. The committee did overseed the Wolfpack with their #17 RPI, a big favor by moving them out of the top half where they rightfully belonged as a four. The Pack moved up based not only on the general respect for the ACC, but on who they beat: Florida State and Maryland on the road, Duke, and sweeps Georgia Tech and Wake, along with a late season win over surging Washington. Herb Sendek has installed a Princeton offense based on the backcuts and spacing which leads to good looks that allow leading scorer Julius Hodge to shot over 50% from the field. The draw might just crack wide open for the 'Pack, with the possibility of beating two double digit seeds (if Western Michigan pulls off the upset over Vandy) to reach the second weekend. Once in Phoenix, North Carolina State would draw UConn and Emeka Okafor's shaky back. The health of Okafor's vertebrae will determine who will face Stanford for the right to go to the Final Four.
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The Western Michigan Broncos will make the Vanderbilt Commodores pine for the sea again. Vandy finished at 8-8 in the SEC after fattening themselves in the non-conference season with 11 wins over cupcakes. Lehigh was the only Tourney bound team Vanderbilt beat out of conference. The Broncos scheduled well, beating Southern Cal and Arizona State and more impressively, winning at UAB, but they can't control that the PAC 10 teams stunk up the joint. The key matchup in this one is at the forward where MAC player of the year Mike Williams takes on all-SEC Matt Freije. For Western Michigan to pull off the upset, 6'-3" Ben Reed, who shot 46% from the land of plenty all season, will need to knock a few down.
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There's a 5-12 upset every year, so take a hard look at the Cougars eating the Orangemen for lunch. In fact, the computers say this one wouldn't even be an upset as the Sagarin predictor puts BYU at #29 and Syracuse at #42. Down low, Araujo will be trouble for Craig Forth, but BYU doesn't have an answer for Warick's hops. And his help will be crucial in doubling Araujo and making him pass out of double teams. Syracuse, shooting only 31% from three, is going to need a big night out of national championship game hero Gerry McNamara if they are to see the second round of this championship tourney.
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G - CHRIS HERNANDEZ : STANFORD : The spark plug for the Cardinal is deadly leading the break but efficient in the half court, shooting 46% from three and 91% from the charity stripe.
    Honorable Mention - John Gilchrest : Maryland : Put the Terps on his back and led them to the ACC title over Duke.
G - DARREN BROOKS : SOUTHERN ILLINOIS : The 6'-3" 205lb guard leads the Salukis in scoring, rebounding and assists, but his Achilles heel is at the free throw line where he shoots only 57%. This might cost the Salukis a shot at an upset in a close game.
    Honorable Mention - Ben Gordon : Connecticut : All he did last week was break Allen Iverson's Big East Tourney scoring record.
F - JOSH CHILDRESS : STANFORD : The 6'-8" small forward scores (15.3 ppg) and rebounds (7.5 rpg). A year after becoming the first small forward to ever lead the Pac-10 on the boards, he came on this season to drop almost 3 dimes a game and block nearly two shots a game. Childress says he models his game on that of his childhood idol Scottie Pippen, who he cited for his ability to do everything well and make his teammates better.
    Honorable Mention - Mike Williams : Western Michigan
F - TAYLOR COPPENRATH : VERMONT : He scored a career high 43 points with one hand to take his team to the Tourney!
    Honorable Mention - Matt Freije : Vanderbilt
C - EMEKA OKAFOR : CONNECTICUT : Okafor averaged 18.5 ppg, 11+ rpg and 4.5 blocks per contest. The only question is whether his back can handle the load.
    Honorable Mention - Raphael Araujo : BYU : The Brazilian is built like a tree trunk at 6'-11" and 280lbs and is deadly near the rim. He's not polished but did lead the Cougars in scoring and rebounding.
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The committee showed a lot of respect for the ACC, and it manifests in the Phoenix region. Maryland went from the bubble 10 days ago to a four seed, jumping over thirty teams on the strength of five straight wins, culminating in their defeat of Duke. CLICK HERE to see a comprehensive chart comparing the #4 seeds.
Before their surprise run through the ACC in Greensboro, the Terps were just 1-4 in their preceding five. Also, the committee seems to reward them for their comeback in the championship, but didn't punish a Duke team that's stumbling a little. CLICK HERE to see a comparison of the #1 seeds. Duke's numbers stack up well vs the other #1s, particularly with regard to their strength of schedule, but they do have the most losses of the #1s and are 6-4 in their last 10.
The committee also was a little generous with NC State at #3. State is coming in at 6-4 in their last ten and does look to be one of the two weakest 3 seeds when compared to Pitt and Texas, although they did handle Georgia Tech twice this year.
The three and four seeds are relatively weak, but the absolute top of the bracket is very strong. Stanford could argue for the top seed in the Tournament. UConn, the number 6 seed overall, might not be the best of the #2 seeds, but they are the most talented with Okafor, Gordon, and fab frosh Charlie Villanueva. CLICK HERE to compare their numbers to the other #2s. UConn compares well numerically to the other #2s and looks to be the strongest if they are healthy. And there's the rub that, without Okafor, UConn becomes much more average and doesn't deserve to be a 2, so dropping them into the second #2 might be the committee's partial hedge.
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This is a bracket full of teams on a roll. DePaul, before their loss in the C-USA title game, was 14-2 in their last 16 to be part of the 5-way pile at the top of C-USA. BYU had won 9 in a row before falling in the MWC championsip. UConn beat Pitt in the Big East championship. Maryland's smoking hot. Syracuse won 7 of 8 before falling to BC in the Big East Tourney.
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This is a region with hot teams playing their best at money time - oh, sorry these are amateurs - when it counts the most. The closest to trouble might be Vandy, who was spanked by Florida 91-69 in the SEC Tourney, but that comes on the heels of their best win of the year; an upset of Mississippi State that put them in the field of 65.
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Maybe I see the world through Cardinal color glasses, but it says here that Stanford returns to its first Final Four since 1997-98. The Cardinal totes a national reputation as having trouble with athletic teams, but the results suggest something else. Against the PAC 10's most athletic teams, Stanford swept Arizona and USC, and beat Washington two out of three. Their only loss of the season came the day after sitting on a runway in a snowstorm in Pullman, Washington after pulling out a miracle win to preserve an undefeated season. Healthy Okafor or not, the Cardinal will avenge their second round defeat to the Huskies in the 2003 Tournament. In fact, Stanford owes UConn a little something for their almost-perfect season. After that loss, in which the Huskies physically manhandled the Cardinal in the second half, the team spent the offseason bonding together and lifting weights to ensure that they would be the ones doing the punishing in March. Now it comes full circle as the Huskies fall to the monster they helped create.
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