It’s that time of year when everyone is trying to fill out those brackets to gain
bragging rights at the office for the next 12 months. Which team is going to be the one to
sneak up and win a game or two (or three)? Will it be Penn, Kent State, Western
Kentucky, Hawaii, Southern Illinois? Or maybe someone totally different. Anyway, that’s
what everyone is trying to figure out as we near the deadline for submitting your bracket
to the head-bracket-dude. But as you read the bracketing tips below, remember that these
come from a person who has not had much success in bracketing. Also, many of the tips
below are based on the past 10-12 years or so. Trends are trends, but they sometimes
change. So check ‘em out.....
Tip One: Grab a pencil. A pencil with a nice eraser because you’re
probably going to need it. Maybe it’s that lucky pencil from when you won the bracket
contest a few years back. Or maybe you’ve never had any bracketing luck. Either way, a
pencil with a good eraser is definitely the way to go.
| Upsets/Year (1st
Round) | |
| Year | # of Upsets |
| ’90 | 7 |
| ’91 | 9 |
| ’92 | 8 |
| ’93 | 6 |
| ’94 | 9 |
| ’95 | 8 |
| ’96 | 9 |
| ’97 | 7 |
| ’98 | 9 |
| ’99 | 12 |
| ’00 | 3 |
| ’01 | 13 |
Tip Two: Take it one round at a time. Think about what you’re
doing each round. There are 32 first round games. Over the past 12 years, there has been
an average of 8.3 upsets per year in the first round. An upset is being defined as a
larger-number seed (such as 9) beating a smaller-number seeded team (such as 8). Using
the chart, maybe you can spot a pattern and guess the number of upsets that will occur this
year. You shouldn’t pick less than 5 upsets or more than a dozen, in my opinion. There
will always be upsets, and you can always pick them. Just hope you pick the right
ones.
Tip Three: Pick the #1 seeds in the first round. A number one seed
has never lost to a #16 in the first round. Go ahead and pencil them as first round
winners. Also remember, though, that all four of the #1 seeds have never all made it to
the Final Four in the same year.
Tip Four: Plan your upsets wisely. There will probably not be as
|
Avgerage Upsets | |
| Matchup | Average # of
Upsets |
| 1 vs 16 | 0 |
| 8 vs 9 | 2.25 |
| 5 vs 12 | 1.3 |
| 4 vs 13 | 0.75 |
| 6 vs 11 | 1.0 |
| 3 vs 14 | 0.67 |
| 7 vs 10 | 1.92 |
| 2 vs 15 | 0.33 |
many 13’s beating 4’s as there will be 10’s beating 7’s. In fact, for example, over the last
12 years, a #9 seed has actually beaten (in an upset) the #8 seed more than the #8 has
beaten the #9. The chart shows the average number of upsets of each variety per year
(number of 8 vs 9, 7 vs 10, etc.). Obviously, these numbers don’t hold up for every single
year. For example, although there’s only an average of 2 upsets per year in the 7 vs 10
game, the 10 seed won all four games in 1999. So you can use the stats but also your own
judgement.
Tip Five: Know the teams. Certain teams have a reputation as being
a team that flops each and every year. Other teams have a reputation of being seeded bad
and playing well in the Tournament. This requires homework and a good memory on your
part. Kansas is one of those teams with a reputation for heading home early. Since 1990,
they’ve been seeded the following numbers: 2, 3, 1, 2, 4, 1, 2, 1, 1, 6, 8, & 4. Of those
twelve years, they’ve only been to the Elite 8 three years and the championship game one
year. They haven’t won a national championship in the past twelve years. On the other
hand, Gonzaga is a team that has over-achieved over the past few years. Over the past
three seasons, they’ve been seeded 10, 10, and 12. They’ve gone to the Elite 8, the Sweet
16, and the Sweet 16 again. These are just 2 examples of teams that either under- or
over-achieve. These teams can easily ruin your bracket on the first day.
| Year | Champ. Game | Champion |
| ’90 | 1 vs 3 | 1 |
| ’91 | 2 vs 3 | 2 |
| ’92 | 1 vs 6 | 1 |
| ’93 | 1 vs 1 | 1 |
| ’94 | 1 vs 2 | 1 |
| ’95 | 1 vs 2 | 1 |
| ’96 | 1 vs 4 | 1 |
| ’97 | 1 vs 4 | 4 |
| ’98 | 2 vs 3 | 2 |
| ’99 | 1 vs 1 | 1 |
| ’00 | 1 vs 5 | 1 |
| ’01 | 1 vs 2 | 1 |
Tip Six: One seeds almost never play each other for the national
championship, but a one seed almost always wins it. As you can see from the chart, the
championship game has almost always been a 1 vs someone else over the past 12 seasons.
However, the one has won the championship every year except one that it has played in
the game. In simpler terms, if a one makes it to the championship game, which it usually
does, it wins the game most of the time. Even simpler, a #1 seed has won the national
championship 75% of the time since 1990.
Tip Seven: Go with your gut. A lot of times, what you think is the
right thing turns out to be just that. Statistics are history, of the past. This year’s
tournament is the present. And believe me, these guys don’t sit down and look at the stats
to see if they’re going to win or not. Every teams goes out there thinking they’re going to
win. Statistics are what they are because of what happened in the past, and obviously, this
year’s results will change the statistics.
