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| TOBACCO ROAD RIVALRY AND TOURNEY TIME
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February 28, 2011
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Daniel, SCS.com Staff Writer
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GAME OF THE WEEK
Duke at North Carolina
Saturday 8 p.m.
Three weeks ago, I said North Carolina would lose at Cameron Indoor Stadium by 30 points. Remember that?
I certainly do. I couldn’t have been more wrong, as Duke needed a late comeback in that game to avoid the upset. I’d like to take this opportunity to admit I was wrong about North Carolina. Roy Williams’ team didn’t benefit from a weak ACC schedule, and it’s not overrated. Instead, the team has simply improved over the course of the season, and now it’s got a chance to win an ACC title by beating Duke at the Dean Dome. I hate to promote the East Coast on this website, but you’ve got to admit there’s some serious drama on Tobacco Road this weekend.
BEST INDIVIDUAL MATCH-UP-- Kendall Marshall (UNC) vs. Nolan Smith (Duke): In Durham, Nolan Smith stole the show with 34 points and a brilliant second-half performance. Marshall hardly scored and made just three field goals, but he did dish out six assists and looked comfortable controlling the team in a difficult environment. It’s hard to ask a rather inexperienced Marshall to stick on Smith, one of the nation’s top point guards and a Player of the Year candidate. But it’s not too much to ask of Marshall to run this team the way a great point guard should in Roy Williams’ system. He’s clearly got the potential, and since taking over the starting job from Larry Drew, the team has obviously benefited.
BEST STORYLINE—Rivalry Game for the Title: Is it possible we could witness a classic Duke/North Carolina clash this weekend? Perhaps. It’s a game that could determine the ACC title, which automatically makes for big-time drama.
HOW THE GAME WILL BE WON: North Carolina controlled the paint in the first match-up, thanks to double-doubles from John Henson and Tyler Zeller. That’s where UNC’s strength lies against Duke, and the Tar Heels have to explot that advantage. The Blue Devils, on the other hand, need to find another option besides Smith. Kyle Singler’s been a bit of a disappointment, but he’ll have a chance to redeem himself Saturday. Seth Curry played a big role in the first game earlier this month, so he’s another candidate to break out.
BOTTOM LINE: There’s not much to say about this contest. Duke and North Carolina are battling for a title, and for the most part, the squads are fairly even. Again, although I’m not always one to tout the ACC bandwagon, I’m always up for great basketball, and that’s what Saturday will provide. I know one thing: North Carolina’s not losing by 30 points. No sir, I won’t predict that again.
Prediction: North Carolina 85, Duke 82
MUST-SEE MATCHUPS
Kansas State at Texas Monday 8 p.m.
Texas’ road loss in Lincoln last week was nothing worry about. After all, Nebraska’s always been a pest under Doc Sadler, and the Longhorns were bound to lose eventually. After blowing a 22-point lead at Colorado this weekend, though, Texas is now banking on a Kansas loss to win an outright Big 12 title. We’ve been talking about Rick Barnes’ stifling defense all season, but Alec Burks and the Buffs had no trouble ripping it for 58 points in the second half Saturday. Hosting a red-hot Jacob Pullen-led Kansas State team, that’s not a recipe for a win on Big Monday.
Prediction: Texas 68, Kansas State 62
Alabama at Florida Tuesday 6 p.m.
Yeah, yeah, we get it: how can Alabama be on the bubble with an 11-3 record in the SEC? That question has been asked a million times this week, and commentators will ask it dozens of times during the next two weeks. Fact is, Alabama’s overall resume isn’t very impressive. The improvement in Anthony Grant’s program is a nice story, sure, but let’s talk about an at-large only if the Crimson Tide knock off UF tomorrow night.
Prediction: Florida 70, Alabama 60
Kansas at Missouri Saturday 11 a.m.
Mike Anderson owns just one victory over Kansas in his five years at Missouri, and that victory came at Mizzou Arena on a buzzer-beater two years ago. In Lawrence, his team executed offensively and played well initially, but defensively the energy and patented chaos was not there. In fact, Anderson barely employed any full court pressure in that first meeting. At home, however, Missouri’s a different defensive team with a different mindset. They’ll get after KU all afternoon, but they’ll need to find a way to slow Kansas’ size and turn over its guards to get a victory.
Prediction: Missouri 72, Kansas 69
Notre Dame at ConnecticutSaturday 1 p.m.
In the jumbled Big East standings, Notre Dame’s still got an outside chance to win this league. Since winning at Pittsburgh, the Irish have elevated their game on the road this winter, but they’re going to have a tough task in Hartford this weekend. Kemba Walker is starting to get more from teammates Alex Oriakhi and Jeremy Lamb, and that means trouble for Big East opponents.
Prediction: Notre Dame 76, Connecticut 69
Wisconsin at Ohio StateSunday 1 p.m.
It’s a rematch of our Game of the Week earlier this month, a game in which I correctly predicted Wisconsin to win, of course (it’s not as though the Badgers were actually favored to win, right?). Something tells me the result may be different this time around.
Prediction: Ohio State 60, Wisconsin 52
UPSET WATCH
New Mexico at BYUWednesday 9 p.m.
If there’s one thing I love to do, it’s make crazy predictions and pray they’ll come true. Here’s another example of that. Will New Mexico sweep the season series by winning at BYU, which opponents rarely do? Probably not. But New Mexico’s an under-the-radar team with a lot of athleticism, and it already beat BYU once. So why not again?
Prediction: New Mexico 70, BYU 66
CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT OUTLOOK
A preview of leagues with championship games this weekend
Atlantic Sun
Belmont’s the favorite here—by a wide margin. Trust me, you’ll be hearing a lot about Belmont during the next few weeks. The Bears’ program is as consistent as they come under Rick Byrd, and they’re starting to receive national attention after ripping through the Atlantic Sun with just one loss. The next three seeds—East Tennessee State, Jacksonville and rival Belmont—are all capable of knocking off Belmont. Personally, I’d like to see Belmont and Lipscomb battle for all the marbles this weekend.
Big South
Suddenly, this league’s wide open. After winning the first 14 games of league play, Coastal Carolina leading scorer and star Desmond Holloway was suspended, and there are NCAA allegations surrounding the program now. Since that news, Cliff Ellis’ team has lost two of four Big South games to stumble into the conference tournament. It’s anyone’s guess as to who will qualify for the NCAA Tournament out of this bunch.
Horizon
After a tumultuous season and a string of bad losses, Butler’s tied at the top of the Horizon with Cleveland State and Wisconsin-Milwaukee. And I’m not about to bet against a team that has several starters back from a national runner-up. Butler dominated Cleveland State in both meetings, but the Panthers swept Brad Stevens’ squad. And don’t forget about a sneaky Valparaiso team. This may be of the more intriguing conference tournaments this season.
Missouri Valley
For the fourth straight season, I’ll cover this tournament live on the scene for SCS.com. And I’m excited to see what’s looking like a do-or-die tournament. Wichita State’s at-large hopes were dashed in a loss to Missouri State this weekend, as the Bears captured the MVC regular season title with the victory in Springfield. MSU’s got a slim chance, but even though a regular season champ from the Valley hasn’t been left out of the field since 1992, that may happen if the Bears don’t win three games in St. Louis. Simply put, it’s desperation mode at the Scottrade Center this weekend—for all 10 teams involved.
Ohio Valley
Murray State lost four league games this year—that’s three more than last year—but it’s still in position to advance to the NCAAs with a top seed in the OVC tournament. Chances are, it’ll meet new-found rival Morehead State and Kenneth Faried in the title game, but Austin Peay led this conference for much of January and shouldn’t be counted out.
Southern Conference
Talk about wide open. Wofford’s the defending champ and may be a trendy upset pick in the NCAAs, but Charleston earned the one seed and has a big-time name in Andrew Goudelock. Over in the weaker North division, Appalachian State is a decent sleeper pick, having won seven of eight games.
Last week’s prediction record: 4-6
Overall record: 70-45
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