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SEC Breakdown


The Conference Title Race
THE CONTENDERS:
EAST
Florida (4-1, 6-1)
Tennessee (4-1, 5-1)
South Carolina (5-2, 6-2)
Georgia (4-2, 5-2)
WEST
Auburn (4-1, 3-1)
Mississippi (3-1, 6-1
COUNT THEM OUT:
Arkansas (2-3, 4-3)
LSU (2-3, 4-3)
Alabama (2-3, 3-4)
Vanderbilt (0-4, 2-5)
Mississippi State (0-4, 1-5)
Kentucky (0-5, 1-6)

Here’s a look at who each of the contenders has left on the schedule:
Florida: Vandy, at SCar, FSU, Tenn
Tennessee: at ND, Mem, at KY, Vandy, at Fla
South Carolina: Wofford, Fla, Clem
Georgia: Auburn, at Miss, at GTech, Houston
Auburn: at GA, Ala, at LSU
Mississippi: Ark, GA, at MSU, Vandy

Here is what would have to happen for each team to capture the Conference Title:
Florida: If the Gators win out, they will win the East. They have already beaten GA, and winning out would require wins over SC and TN. Even if the Gators lost once, they would hold the tiebreaker over every team in the East except the one they lose to.
Tennessee: The Vols must win out to have a chance at the SEC Championship Game. They lose any tie to GA, but winning out would give them the tie over Florida. They Vols need the Bulldogs to lose another game.
South Carolina: The Gamecocks already hold the tiebreaker over GA, but would lose any ties with TN. South Carolina must still play Florida, and that is a must-win for USC.
Auburn: Auburn loses any ties to Arkansas, but since they probably won’t be at the top, that’s not a big deal. The Tigers still have to play Alabama and LSU from the West, and those will be huge games. AU has already beaten Mississippi this season, so they obviously hold the tie over the Rebels.
Mississippi: The Rebels will need to win out to have a shot at the West, because they lose all ties with Auburn. They would also need AU to lose a game. Mississippi has a very easy schedule remaining.
Summing it up:
I think GA will be the first to go from the East, and then USC. That leaves Florida and Tennessee; homefield to the Gators. In the West, Auburn has too tough of a schedule and will lose at least one more game, and possibliy two. Mississippi has a fairly easy road from here, not playing SC, FL, or TN this year, and should win the West.

The Mad Dash for the Bowl Games
The Teams with a shot (with their remaining games):
--Florida: (4-1, 6-1) Vandy, at SCar, FSU, Tenn
--Tennessee: (4-1, 5-1) at ND, Mem, at KY, Vandy, at Fla
--South Carolina: (5-2, 6-2) Wofford, Fla, Clem
--Georgia: (4-2, 5-2) Auburn, at Miss, at GTech, Houston
--Auburn: (4-1, 6-2) at GA, Ala, at LSU
--Mississippi: (3-1, 6-1) Ark, GA, at MSU, Vandy
--Arkansas: (2-3, 4-3) at MS, CFla, MSU, at LSU
--LSU (2-3, 4-3) at Bama, MidTN, Ark, Aub
--Alabama (2-3, 3-4) LSU, MSU, at Aub, SoMiss

Here’s what needs to happen for each of these teams:
Florida: The Gators are going bowling, but they aren’t satisfied with that. They’re hoping for Pasadena.
Tennessee: The Vols are still hoping for the Rose Bowl, but will probably end up in a New Year’s Day game.
South Carolina: The Gamecocks can still get a BCS bowl if they win the SEC, but look for USC on New Year’s Day.
Georgia: The Dawgs are hoping for the SEC title as well, but probably won’t get it. They have 3 very tough games left, and will probably end up at the 7-4 mark, going to a decent bowl.
Auburn: The Tigers also have 3 very tough games left. A record of 7-4 or 8-3 will get them a nice bowl game.
Mississippi: They have a fairly easy schedule left, and will likely end up 9-2, getting themselves somewhere besides Shreveport this season.
Arkansas: I see the Hogs ending up 6-5 for this season. Once again, they sneak into a minor bowl game.
LSU: The Tigers don’t have an easy schedule remaining, but should finish around the 7-4 mark, a little below their preseason expectations.
Alabama: The next two games are key for Bama. LSU and MSU have been struggling and if they pull off these two wins, they’ll only be 1 away from bowling. I see the Tide, however, coming up one game short, going 5-6.
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